The growth of the national economy would stand at 1.8% in the second quarter of 2022, instead of 15.2% in the same quarter of 2021, estimates the High Commission for Planning (HCP).
“Overall, and taking into account a 12.9% drop in agricultural value added, economic activity should show an increase of 1.8%, in the second quarter of 2022, in annual variation, instead of +15 .2% recorded by base effect in the same quarter of 2021”, specifies the HCP in a note on the situation.
Domestic demand, for its part, should experience a slight acceleration in the second quarter of 2022, contributing 3.3 points to overall economic growth, specifies the note which reports on the situation of the main economic indicators observed for the fourth quarter of 2021, estimated for the first quarter of 2022 and reporting the forecasts for the second quarter.
It would be particularly driven by the continued strengthening of public spending, continues the HCP, adding that household spending will remain affected by the continued strong inflationary pressures.
In this context, value added excluding agriculture should show an increase of 4.1% in the second quarter of 2022, year-on-year. It should be particularly driven by the tertiary branches, whose contribution to overall economic growth should amount to +2.4 points.
In the secondary sector, mining activities should return to positive growth, promoting a 2.8% increase in the added value of secondary branches.
In addition, the HCP estimates that foreign demand addressed to the national economy would show an increase of 3.1% in the second quarter of 2022, in annual variation, instead of 20.7% during the same period of the year. past.
“The development of the world economy in the second quarter of 2022 would remain dependent on the epidemiological situation, particularly in China, as well as the repercussions of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict, which would weigh on the growth prospects of the world economy throughout the country. year 2022”, indicates the HCP.
